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Dear Folks
We've been doing some "reality checks" around here last week, trying to get a handle on how our industry is doing and how we need to prepare for the upcoming year. As we look back, it would seem that most all of us in the industry have had a fantastic run of business. Our industry has been recognized by shooters, non-shooters and even the economic whiz-kids on Wall Street, as one of the very few bright spots during this economic downturn. You probably saw it in the huge volume of sales starting right at the election in November, 2008, peaking somewhere around Easter, 2009 and then sliding back closer to the traditional summer slow-down we always see.
In doing our analysis here, we asked ourselves the following three questions and tried to come up with answers. You might want to stop a moment and with a fresh cup of coffee, ask yourself these questions about your business and how you feel about your future. - Is this "Obama Gun Sale Bubble" over?
- Is demand for firearms and ammunition coming down to the standard demand curve for our business?
- What can we do for the remainder of 2009 and all of 2010 to match or beat those high sales in the "Bubble" months of 2008-09?
We came up with some answers, which I'll pass along to you, but they really are only our opinions from our viewpoint. Hopefully you will find something in here which will be beneficial to you in your business.
We believe the insane demand level for tactical firearms is over and future demands for these products will come back down to the industry norms. Keep in mind, though, there have been a huge number of non-traditional firearms buyers making purchases of AR-15's. So there are a lot of customers out there who will still want to accessorize and modify one of the world's most versatile and popular platforms. Definitely still a market for AR-15 "stuff", but a much softer one for the basic platform itself.
The conceal carry/home defense market, however, is starting to heat up and right now is the beginning of a "short boom", not as significant as tactical rifles, but one nonetheless. We don't know how much leg this market can get under it or how long it might run. It is getting lots of play right now in the gun press, so take a look at how you can get into it modestly and watch it closely.
We strongly believe the reloading and ammo markets are still underserved and have strong growth ahead of them. It will take longer to get these markets back to a norm because the primer shortage. The deep fluctuations/price increases in the metals markets from which most of these ammo components are made - lead, copper, brass has an impact on availability and prices. Our industry's share of these markets is not even a wrinkle, and we have neither control nor any leverage we can bring into play. We just have to wait for the metals markets to settle out.
Shotgun and hunting markets did not seem to have the favorable run-up as the tactical weapons market. From what we think we see, there might be some returning strength. It looks like reservations for hunts have still to recover. We definitely expect those to slowly come back, but quite possibly not until folks are more comfortable the economy has settled down and a general recovery is underway. Hunts are discretionary, more easily put off.
For net results for 2009, don't focus too much on beating year-over-year numbers. Our last year was way out of the norm. Instead focus on the year's sales number. With the history we've had, it would actually be acceptable to have a 0% growth year in 2010 - it all depends when your fiscal year ends and where the "Obama Bubble" fell. Sometimes it's just nice to have survived and to be able to move on!
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Brownells Roll Pin Punch Set
We combined 19 of our most popular roll pin punches and added a handy bench block to come up with the perfect punch set for the busy shop or department armor. Easily start, remove, and install spring pins and roll pins in firearms without damage to the pin or firearm. Features (5) holder punches, (7) starter punches, and (7) standard punches that can easily handle any job out there.
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Brownells Gelled Shotgun Wad Solvent
It is always best to use quality ammo, however as ammo prices continue to go up, many may find inexpensive import ammo an attractive alternative. I noticed steel cased lacquer coated ammo (such as Wolff or S&B not to name names) leaves "sludge" in the chamber.
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GunsmithSupplies.com
Create personalized printed business materials with your business or shop name. Simply select the template you want, input your information, and receive your printed material within days of your order. Choose from Business Cards, Letterhead, Envelopes, Business Forms, Promotional Products and Gun Price Tags.
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Brownells Gunsmith Corner
Question: I have a Bushmaster AR-15 style rifle. The trigger on it has a heavy and rough pull and I feel it affects the accuracy when shooting it. Do you recommend an after market trigger (If so which one), or have a gunsmith try to lighten and smooth it out?
Answer: While it is possible to improve on the stock trigger, I find it often more cost effective to install an aftermarket unit. If a 3-3.5 pound pull is what you want I recommend the JP Trigger and Low Mass Hammer.
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A Forgiving Man
An old trap shooter in a little town south of Montezuma went to see his undertaker to make plans for his funeral before his death. When it came to the pallbearers he named off six. The undertaker was quite surprised at this.
"John," he says, "these guys were your worst enemies on the trap field. How come them?"
"Yeah, I know" says John, "but I want the world to know that I am a real forgiving Christian and can do things like that."
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Handloading - The Wandering Narrative Part III
My first thought, for a photo that would best illustrate handloading, was an image of a giant river otter. Otters always seem to be having fun, floating around on their collective otter backs and eating fish all day. And handloading is all about fun...although maybe not so much about floating around and eating fish... but definitely about fun. Eventually, I woke from my nap and decided to go with an over crowded reloading bench and clear evidence of out of control spending on colorful equipment and non-essential gadgets. And that otter do it...
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